The NBA's Middle Class: Where Did the Money Go?
My college thesis predicted NBA salary inequality would grow — so I checked back 10 years later to see if I was right.
Middle class keeps shrinking.
went to just 19 players
The middle class was already disappearing
By splitting each season's players into three equal groups by salary, I found that the top tier of players were capturing a growing share of total payroll — while the middle tier was getting squeezed. In 2014-15, the top third earned roughly 72% of total salary. The middle third? About 21%. The bottom third — mostly rookies and minimum-contract players — less than 8%.
The culprit: maximum salary rules introduced in the late 1990s let superstars lock in huge contracts (up to 35% of the cap for one player). Teams paid for stars and filled remaining spots with cheap rookies. The middle market — solid veterans, reliable starters, the 6th or 7th man — was being bid down.
“The average NBA salary hit $9M, but the median salary was $4M — stars at the top skew the mean. Most players make far less than headlines suggest.”
Solid players are settling for minimum contracts
The 2023 CBA actually made things worse. New "apron" spending thresholds discourage teams from using mid-level exceptions — meaning fewer teams are willing to pay $8–12M for a reliable role player. Only 10 of 30 teams used any portion of the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception in 2023 free agency.
How we got here
I was right — and it's gotten worse
The NBA's economic boom has not lifted all boats equally. Despite the salary cap nearly doubling from $70M to $136M, the proportional earnings of middle-tier players are as small as ever — around 20% of total payroll or less. The middle class isn't just struggling to gain ground; it's actively losing it.
For fans, this means the "average NBA player makes $9M" stat is deeply misleading. Most players earn far less. A handful of stars skew everything upward. And with the 2023 CBA's apron rules making teams even more cautious, solid veterans are increasingly settling for minimum deals that don't reflect their value to a team's success.