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Home/Think/I Rewrote My Thesis with AI

The NBA's Middle Class: Where Did the Money Go?

My college thesis predicted NBA salary inequality would grow — so I checked back 10 years later to see if I was right.

June 2025
Academic ResearchData Analysis
~75%
Salary Share — Top ⅓
~20%
Salary Share — Middle ⅓
$136M
2023-24 Salary Cap
10 yrs
Prediction Window
What this is: In 2015, I wrote my college thesis on NBA salary distribution — finding that the league's "middle class" of players was being squeezed out. Ten years later, I had an AI run the same analysis to see if my predictions held. (Short answer: they did, and then some.)
NBA Salary Distribution — Top vs. Middle vs. Bottom Third (2015–2024)
Stars keep eating.
Middle class keeps shrinking.
64%
of 2023 free agent money
went to just 19 players
'15
'16
'17
'18
'19
'20
'21
'22
'23
'24
Top ⅓ of players (~72–75%)
Middle ⅓ (~20%)
Bottom ⅓ (<8% → now under 6%)
The Original Thesis · 2015

The middle class was already disappearing

By splitting each season's players into three equal groups by salary, I found that the top tier of players were capturing a growing share of total payroll — while the middle tier was getting squeezed. In 2014-15, the top third earned roughly 72% of total salary. The middle third? About 21%. The bottom third — mostly rookies and minimum-contract players — less than 8%.

The culprit: maximum salary rules introduced in the late 1990s let superstars lock in huge contracts (up to 35% of the cap for one player). Teams paid for stars and filled remaining spots with cheap rookies. The middle market — solid veterans, reliable starters, the 6th or 7th man — was being bid down.

2014–15 (Original Thesis)
72%
of total salary going to top ⅓ of players. Middle class: 21%. My thesis predicted this would only get worse.
2023–24 (Updated Analysis)
~75%
of total salary going to top ⅓ — an all-time high. The cap doubled; the middle class's share didn't grow at all.
The 2016 "Cap Spike" Blip
+1%
The cap jumped 34% in one year, briefly helping middle-class players. Luol Deng signed for $16M/yr. It didn't last.
2023 Free Agency
64%
of ~$3.8B in 2023 contracts went to just 19 players. Under 5% of players captured nearly two-thirds of new money.

“The average NBA salary hit $9M, but the median salary was $4M — stars at the top skew the mean. Most players make far less than headlines suggest.”

Real-World Impact · 2023

Solid players are settling for minimum contracts

The 2023 CBA actually made things worse. New "apron" spending thresholds discourage teams from using mid-level exceptions — meaning fewer teams are willing to pay $8–12M for a reliable role player. Only 10 of 30 teams used any portion of the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception in 2023 free agency.

🏀 Middle-Class Players Who Took Minimum Contracts in 2023
Malik Beasley
Previously earning ~$12M/yr
→ Veteran minimum
Monte Morris
Previously earning ~$9M/yr
→ Veteran minimum
Delon Wright
Previously earning ~$8M/yr
→ Veteran minimum
10-Year Timeline

How we got here

2015
Original Thesis
Top ⅓ earns 72% of total salary. Thesis warns: "Without changes, the trend might continue." Prediction: the middle class will keep shrinking.
2016
The Cap Spike
34% cap jump floods teams with space. Middle-class players briefly benefit. Mozgov, Deng sign eye-popping deals. Temporary — most regretted by 2018.
2017
New CBA + Supermax
New supermax extension lets elite players earn up to 35% of cap. Stars get richer. Mid-level exception grows modestly. Net effect: gap widens.
2023
New CBA + Apron Rules
New CBA adds spending "aprons" to curb superteams — but teams now avoid mid-level signings to stay under thresholds. Middle-class market dries up further.
2024
Updated Analysis
Top ⅓ now earns ~75% of payroll — up from 72% in 2015. Cap has nearly doubled; middle's share unchanged or lower. Prediction confirmed.
Verdict

I was right — and it's gotten worse

The NBA's economic boom has not lifted all boats equally. Despite the salary cap nearly doubling from $70M to $136M, the proportional earnings of middle-tier players are as small as ever — around 20% of total payroll or less. The middle class isn't just struggling to gain ground; it's actively losing it.

For fans, this means the "average NBA player makes $9M" stat is deeply misleading. Most players earn far less. A handful of stars skew everything upward. And with the 2023 CBA's apron rules making teams even more cautious, solid veterans are increasingly settling for minimum deals that don't reflect their value to a team's success.

📄 Read the Full 2024 Analysis📊 View Original 2015 Thesis🎧 Listen to the AI Podcast
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I Rewrote My College Thesis with AI
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Key Topics
NBA Salary CapIncome InequalitySports EconomicsCBA AnalysisStatistical Analysis
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